Modelling the Impact of Undetected Cases on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 globally has caused negative impacts to the public, making understanding the dynamics of transmission a necessity. Essential factors such as undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions have played significant roles in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 in the human population. It is imperative to understand the significance of these factors in order to determine whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or will continue to persist in the population. A mathematical model is formulated to investigate the impacts of vaccination and several non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of a COVID-19 accounting for asymptomatic cases, detected (identified) and undetected (unidentified) symptomatic infected cases. Results show that vaccination at higher rate, infection detection and immediate quarantine or isolation of infected individuals have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from the population. It is recommended that individuals should be encouraged to get vaccinated while the government should encourage (or enforce through persuasive communication) the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as face masks wearing.  

Keywords: COVID-19, undetected, vaccination, vaccine efficacy, stability.