A Mathematical Analysis of an In-vivo Ebola Virus Transmission Dynamics Model

Abstract

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection is a hemorrhagic and hazardous disease, which is among the most shocking threats to human health causing a large number of deaths. Currently, there are no approved curative therapies for the disease. In this study, a mathematical model for in-vivo Ebola virus transmission dynamics was analyzed. The analysis of the model mainly focused on the sensitivity of basic reproductive number,  pertaining to the model parameters. Particularly, the sensitivity indices of all parameters of  were computed by using the forward normalized sensitivity index method. The results showed that a slight change in the infection rate immensely influences  while the same change in the production rate of the virus has the least impact on . Thus, , being a determining factor  of the disease progression, deliberate control measures targeting the infection rate, the most positively sensitive parameter, are required. This implies that reducing infection rate will redirect the disease to extinction.

Keywords: Ebola virus infection, immune response, sensitivity index, mathematical model.